Chaos Daemons: Part 1, Addendum (Eternal Blade)

I forgot to do the Eternal Blade in the last one! Why would I forget such a sweet exalted reward? Because no AP. Goddamnit it's 30 points for an AP - weapon?? Whyyyyyyyyy???

Let't do a side-by-side comparison with the same MC wielding this or any Etherblade and Unarmed. He'll be fighting a MEQ Chapter Master. It's a swag challenge between two HQ's. Only changes between MEQ and MEQ Chapter Master are WS 6 W 3 I 5 (doesn't matter with any MC in this book besides the goddawful Kairos) and A 3. S, T, Ld are all pretty much the same (ATSKNF means Fear doesn't do diddley against them womp womp).

So, which MC? We can do Bloodthirster but that's kinda overkill, let's do the closest points cost MC we can get: Keeper of Secrets

Unarmed
WS 9 v. 6
S 6 v. T 4
AP 2 so Iron Halo 4++ save
6 attacks

We get, on average, 1.67 wounds. Not factoring in Hammer of Wrath or Charging and rending doesn't matter since all attacks are AP 2 'cause MC. So, unarmed the chance of any attack causing a wound is ~27%. With this number we can calculate that you have a ~20% chance of causing 3 or more wounds unarmed.

[Math for that: (20*(.27)^3*(.73)^3) + (15*(.27)^4*(.73)^2) + (6*(.27)^5*(.73)^1) + ((.27)^6*(.73)^0), the integers are the number of combos of that number of wounds and misses. Ex: three attacks wound, 3 do not. The attacks that wound are 1st, 2nd and 4th and 3rd, 5th and 6th do not. That's 1 combo for 3 wounds 3 do not. That's why in the last one you see only .27^6. There's only 1 combo where all 6 wound. A .03% chance for that]

Etherblade
WS 9 v. 6
S 6 v. T 4
AP 2
6 Attacks, Master-crafted

You can now expect 1.75 wounds. Better but not by much. It'd be a little too complicated to try and factor master-crafted in to figure out your chance of killing but suffice it to say it'll be better than 20%.

Greater Etherblade

WS 9 v. 6
S 7 v. T 4
AP 2
6 Attacks, Master-crafted

Same as above. The only difference is the strength bonus which won't matter against this unit.


Eternal Blade
D3 averages to +2 so we'll add two to all relevant numbers:

WS 10 v. 6
S 7 v. T 4
AP 2, (Smash) <- on MC's only does the AP of a weapon not matter, if you took Eternal Blade on a Herald prepare to be disappointed with how many of your attacks are saved
8 Attacks

You can now expect ~2.2 wounds. This nets you about the same result as Etherblade and Greater Etherblade. You have a 37% chance to kill outright.

So, in the end, you've doubled your chances of an outright kill in 1 round for 30 points on a MEQ HQ. Your average wounds go from 1.67 to 2.2 meaning you're going from 51% likely to score 2+ wounds to being 68% likely to score 2+ wounds. For 30 points it just doesn't seem worth it to me. On a Herald, who does not have smash, it is not worth it. Period. Take all the wound totals above and reduce them by ~20% and that's Herald with Eternal Blade. On a Bloodthirster you do get a bonus attack from having two specialist weapons but your WS and I are already unapproachable by all but a select few units (roughly a baker's dozen between all other codexes) so the D3 bonus there is meaningless. Same with other MC's, your WS and I are so high that very little in the game will surpass you. Go with the cheaper options. You're not getting enough bang for the buck.