Battle Report: GK Termies v. Bloodthirster

Battle Scenario: How likely is it for a 5-man group of GK termies to kill a Bloodthirster in CC? I'll go over one scenario: GK's get assaulted


Termie Load-out:
3 Halberds
2 Daemon Hammers
Justicar's is Master-crafted
Total cost: 205
Bloodthirster Load-out:
Standard, no changes
Total cost: 250


Scenario Suck for GKs: Bloodthirster gets first strike

Bloodthirster gets 7 attacks, WS 10 vs 4, and S 7 vs T 4 means GK will suffer an average of 4 wounds (rounded). Doesn't really matter if any of the wounds are Decapitating Blow because they all die after 1 wound. On average only 1 of those wounds will be saved leaving 3 dead. Though there is a good chance that only 2 wound will be caused, we'll assume 3.

Now since the GK player isn't an idiot he lets the 3 Halberds eat it. What's left are the 2 Hammers, 1 Master-crafted. They have Preferred Enemy (Daemons) and thus re-roll 1's for To Hit and To Wound. They also have Hammerhand but don't need it against Bloodthirster so don't risk Perils. We'll activate the Force Weapon ability of Nemesis weapons 5/6 times so we'll assume it goes off since the majority of the time they will pass the psychic test. Normal GK Termie goes first WS 4 vs 10, S 9 vs. T 6 and re-roll 1s. Now, with all this he has a 50/50 chance of killing the Bloodthirster. Shiiiiiiiiiiit. Justicar goes now, same stats but master-crafted means he can reroll 1 miss. With this re-roll being twice as good as before the Justicar has a 72% chance of causing a wound. Meaning between these two Bamfs Bloodthirster dies.

If they hit they have a 97% chance of wounding with the re-roll and since they have re-rolls on To Hit too the Justicar has a ~55% chance of getting a hit with one attack while the Termie has a ~40% chance of hitting. With only a 5+ save to cover his ass Bloodthirster gonna diiiiie.

On average, if the Force weapons get activated, the Bloodthirster has a ~17% chance of survival against just two Termies. Better stay airborne ;)